Phantom 3 and Future Drones
1759 6 2015-4-13
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ob1artkid
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I've noticed from reading a lot of the posts on the Phantom 3 forum that lots of people are unhappy or are complaining about DJI. Generally, the people that are unhappy and upset fall into 4 camps. The first camp are the ones who bought the P2 in last 2 months and now feel that they didn't get enough time to own the latest and greatest. The 2nd camp are those that bought the Inspire but would have definitely preferred the price affordablity of the P3. The 3rd camp are the ones who want waypoints and ground station since it was included in the app for the P2 (I gave my opinion on this in another thread). The 4th and final camp are unhappy because DJI does handles their retail and customer support department departments different than more establishing retailers like Amazon or B&H.

I bought a P2 V.2 about 6 months ago. About 2 months after I got the V.2, the V.3 came out. Four months later, the P3 comes out. I'm on preorder and I can accept that the P3 I will buy will be overtaken in probably 4-6 months.

The drone market is new and I can garauntee you that in the next 6-14 months, drones WILL get outdated quickly and become more and more affordable. This will especially happen as more and more drone companies enter the arena. the biggest company that will enter the arena will be GoPro. They have already stated that they will enter the drone arena in the 2nd half of 2015 and that they will have a drone that will be priced at around $1,000. The rumor is that their drone will have their new Hero 4+/5 which will have 4K at 60FPS and even 6 K or 8K. GoPro has way more distribution power than DJI and has many times the loyal customer base. I expect my P3 to be overtaken by either a GoPro drone, a newer DJI drone to combat the GoPro drone, or something completely out of left field like a Sony, Canon, Panasonic, or another Chinese company entering the arena. Everyone here should know this.

The Inspire is an awesome drone, superior in lots of ways to the P3. But again, I expect it to devalue greatly in the next 12 months. Expect them to sell for $1,200-$1,500 in the next 12 months. I bought my P2 for about $1300 6 months ago. It now sells for $650 on Ebay now. Everyone here should know the short and long term resale vale of the drones they now own and the drones that they will soon get. I'm on preorder for a P3 and I'll be getting one with extra battery for over $1300. By September, something way better will be out and if I want to sell my P3 to get it, I'd have to settle for maybe $600 or less for my P3.

The times that new technology gets introduced and when your old technolgy gets overtaken is NAB in the spring and CES is the fall. If you buy old technology just before NAB and CES, expect it to be overtaken very soon.

I addressed the waypoints and ground station in another thread.

DJI customer service isn't perfect. Even I had some issues with their repair department. Communication was really tough at times from their end and it was up to me to make sure I got good service even after I made payment. However, I can understand their growing pains, especially since they're really a Chinese company that doesn't fully understand standard American service protocol. I expect them to greatly improve very soon. If they don't, they'll get wiped out by other soon to be competeing companies.

Right now, DJI is the best in the marketplace and they really don't have serious competition. However, in the next couple of months, especially by CES in the fall, I expect others to present more serious competition. That will be the time when drone prices and features will improve.

Just my $.02.

2015-4-13
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Yeah I agree to you. Tech devaluation is normal and it's actually good news that tech keeps updating so quickly. But part of the reason tech updates is also that companies hold back good features so they can sell version 2 with those features.

Still, I think the price devaluation of drones is too extreme. -25% or even -50% in a year is ok, but -50% in 6 months . . . that's why I think currently drones are too expensive (with a lower price they would devalue less)
2015-4-13
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ob1artkid
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Yep, I agree with you. The devaluation of 50% in 6 months is extreme but that's because it's a new industry in terms of widespread commercial public interest. Before only professionals willing to $8000+ were interested. Now that drones are coming in below $3,000, the amateur public can now get into it. Once Gopro, Sony, Panasonic, Samsung get into it and mass produce drones, expect 8K drones that can shoot 120 FPS with remotes with built in tablets and batteries that can last hours to sell for like $350. I expect in 4 years to have drones like that to sell at that price point. Inspire 1 drones won't even be worth the plastic they are made out of. I remember when blank CDs first came out and CD burners came out back in 1996. 2X blank Cds were selling for like $15 each and 2X burners were selling for like $3500 and were huge machines. Now those machines aren't worth anything. Expect the same for our current drones. The P2 I had that just sold for $650 won't even be worth $200 by next year.
2015-4-13
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ob1artkid
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Everyone buying a P3 now should know that by September this year, something way better at probably a lower price will be out. People that have a P2 now should just enjoy the P2 and wait until September for the next generation. Trust me it'll be better with probably 6K and 120FPS with maybe an hour of battery life, with built in ND and polarizing filters and and priced at $1,000. Because of this, P3 owners like myself would have to sell our P3s for like $500-$600 in September to upgrade. Those that are moaning about buying P2s can just wait another 6 months to upgrade. It'll be worth the wait. When CES 2015 hits, lots of improvements will be made.
2015-4-13
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Dataway
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I agree with you also but just to be correct, CES 2015 has already happened.  CES is held in January of each year so I assume you mean CES 2016.  But you are very correct in your evaluation it is technology and a new industry that is progressing very quickly.  I remember when the first Personal Computers hit the markets and their progression was similar to what we are experiencing now in the UAV industry.
2015-4-13
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ob1artkid
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Yep, I meant CES 2016. Drones are going to be getting better and cheaper very, very fast. I honestly don't think anyone needs to complain about accidentely buying old tech and not having the opportunity to buying the latest and greatest because they'll get that chance again very soon at even a better prices. To all new P2 owners that just got their P2: don't worry, by the end of the year, you'll get the opportunity to get something even better than the P3 for hundreds less.
2015-4-13
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I still have my 2009 Mac Pro and it's about as good as anything else out there.
My Phantom 1 is still in service for still photos. It's a lot more fun to fly because I don't worry about it as much....

And my iphone 5? I use that with the Phantom 2 Vision+

I don't understand those who buy or care about tech for it's own sake. It's a tool. I could buy a $5K guitar and I won't sound any better - and Eric Clapton could play a $400 Mexican-made strat and wow the world.

The old saying "it ain't the meat, it's the motion" applies to tools and creativity. Someone who longs for expression of the photographic arts will come up with something that pleases many people with a $200-$500 setup, while the dude sitting around lamenting that he doesn't have the newest (and non-existent) models release is busy complaining.
2015-4-13
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