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Vídeo COS.TV | Ganhei O MELHOR bastão de selfio DO MUNDO!
4079 25 2020-10-18
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COS.TV
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Suren
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Линии сопротивления скорости

Разработанные Эдсоном Гулдом линии сопротивления скорости, иногда называемые линиями скорости, представляют собой линии тренда, основанные на ретрейсментах 1/3 и 2/3. Гулд был выдающимся специалистом по маркетингу, прославившимся своими рыночными призывами в 60-х и 70-х годах. Гулд несколько раз появлялся на Wall Street Week и часто цитировался в Barron's. Линии сопротивления скорости не строятся в отличие от традиционных линий тренда, которые основаны на пиках и впадинах. Вместо этого первая линия проходит от минимума к максимуму при восходящем тренде или от максимума к минимуму при нисходящем тренде. Эта первая Speedline иногда снижает цены. Последующие линии затем помещаются с интервалом 1/3 и 2/3 для оценки потенциальных уровней поддержки или сопротивления.

Расчет
Расчет нисходящего тренда
Первая строка: по убыванию
Средняя линия: высокая до 2/3 пункта
Верхняя линия: от высокой до 1/3 пункта

2/3 балла: High - (High - Low) x 0,667
1/3 балла: High - (High - Low) x 0,333
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График SPY выше показывает линии сопротивления скорости, идущие вниз от апрельского максимума. Первая линия проходит от апрельского максимума (121,54) до июльского минимума (101,13). Средняя линия проходит от апрельского максимума до 2/3 пункта, что на две трети ниже апрельского максимума. Верхняя линия проходит от апрельского максимума до 1/3 пункта, что на треть ниже апрельского максимума. Эти линии расширяются вправо по мере появления новых баров (торговых дней).

Расчет восходящего тренда
Первая строка: от низкой к высокой
Средняя линия: от нижней до 2/3 пункта
Нижняя линия: от нижней до 1/3 пункта

2/3 балла: Low + (High - Low) x 0,667
1/3 балла: Low + (High - Low) x 0,333

График TLT выше показывает линии сопротивления скорости, восходящие от апрельского минимума. Первая линия проходит от апрельского минимума (86,44) до июльского максимума (102,66). Средняя линия проходит от апрельского минимума до 2/3 пункта, что на две трети выше апрельского минимума. Нижняя линия проходит от апрельского минимума до 1/3 пункта, что на треть выше апрельского минимума. Эти линии расширяются вправо по мере появления новых баров (торговых дней).
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Интерпретация
Линии сопротивления скорости работают так же, как обычные линии тренда. Их можно использовать для оценки уровней поддержки или сопротивления и определения тренда. При восходящем тренде линии сопротивления скорости отмечают два потенциальных уровня поддержки, за которыми следует следить. Прорыв ниже средней линии нацелен на движение к верхней линии. Прорыв ниже нижней линии указывает на достаточную слабость, чтобы рассматривать разворот тренда. После прорыва линии продолжения могут обозначать сопротивление, как и обычные линии тренда. При нисходящем тренде линии сопротивления скорости отмечают два потенциальных уровня сопротивления, за которыми следует следить. Прорыв над средней линией показывает силу, нацеленную на движение к верхней линии. Прорыв над верхней линией указывает на разворот тренда. После выхода из строя эти Speedlines могут затем превратиться в поддержку при откате.
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Пример восходящего тренда
На графике 3 показана цель (TGT) с линиями сопротивления скорости, проведенными от декабрьского минимума до максимума января (желтые точки). После построения эти линии расширяются вправо по мере появления нового ценового действия и добавления новых баров. Это также означает, что уровни поддержки также изменяются и расширяются. Также возможно перерисовать линии сопротивления скорости при формировании новых максимумов. В начале февраля TGT упал с гэпом, но акции нашли поддержку на нижней линии Speedline и продолжили восходящий тренд. Нижняя линия Speedline также оказала поддержку в конце февраля - начале мая. Цель пробила нижнюю линию скорости в начале июня, чтобы сигнализировать о развороте тренда. Обратите внимание, как эта линия превратилась в сопротивление в середине июня.

График 3 - Линии сопротивления скорости

На графике 4 показан Pfizer (PFE) с линиями сопротивления скорости, проведенными от июньского минимума до июльского максимума. Несмотря на такой короткий период розыгрыша, более низкий удлинитель Speedline оказал поддержку в октябре и ноябре. Также обратите внимание, как среднее расширение Speedline оказало сопротивление в конце августа.


Пример нисходящего тренда
График 5 показывает Macy's (M) с нарисованными линиями сопротивления скорости. Первая линия скорости, отмеченная желтыми точками, проходит от максимума октября до минимума декабря. Средняя линия скорости отмечает первый потенциальный уровень сопротивления. Верхняя линия скорости отмечает второй уровень потенциального сопротивления. Обратите внимание, как Macy's прорвался выше средней линии Speedline с сильным всплеском в декабре, но столкнулся с сопротивлением на верхней линии Speedline в конце декабря и начале января. Февральский прорыв выше верхней линии Speedline развернул нисходящий тренд.

1-14 09:49
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Линии квадранта


Линии квадранта обеспечивают визуальный ориентир для текущих цен относительно определенного диапазона максимума-минимума. Как видно из формулы, квадранты имеют одинаковый размер, потому что каждый равен 1/4 или 25% диапазона высоких-низких. После повышения, Линии Квадранта позволяют составителям графиков быстро определять ценовые точки, которые проходят откат на 25%, 50% и 75%. Цены откатились на 50%, когда достигли линии среднего квадранта. Соответствующие откаты также можно увидеть при рисовании линий квадранта над снижением. Чартисты могут легко определить рост, который откатывается на 25%, 50% или 75% от определенного снижения.
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Масштабирование журнала
Линии квадранта могут не выглядеть равноудаленными в логарифмической шкале, но они равноудалены в абсолютном выражении. Масштабирование журнала показывает движение цен в процентах. Повышение с 65 до 75 составляет 10 пунктов в абсолютном выражении или 15,3% в процентном отношении. Повышение со 100 до 110 - тоже 10 пунктов, но гораздо меньше в процентном отношении (всего 10%). Перемещение на 10 пунктов на 15,3% по логарифмической шкале будет больше, чем на перемещение на 10 пунктов на 10%. Ход на 10 пунктов по арифметической шкале будет выглядеть одинаково независимо от начальной точки (65 или 100). По этой причине нижний квадрант может казаться больше, чем верхний, при использовании масштабирования журнала. Несмотря на то, что перемещения точек равны, равное продвижение от более низкой начальной точки дает больший процентный прирост, что отражается в лог-диаграмме.

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Продвижение с ретрейсментом
На диаграмме 4 показан рост IBM с линиями квадранта с конца октября до середины января. Акция укрепилась около 75% коррекции, которая является вершиной самого низкого квадранта. Это не аргумент в пользу 75% как ключевого отката, за которым должны внимательно следить аналитики. Линии квадранта просто помогают аналитикам количественно оценить глубину отката.

Снижение с откатом
График 5 показывает Google (GOOG) с линиями квадранта, покрывающими снижение с начала января до конца февраля. GOOG превысил 25% и 50% откатов с ростом выше 590, но не превысил 75% откатов.
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Заключение
Линии квадранта могут использоваться для выявления откатов или определения относительного положения текущих цен в пределах заданного диапазона максимума-минимума. Хотя эти линии сами по себе не являются индикаторами, есть некоторое сходство с инструментом коррекции Фибоначчи, который использует ретрейсменты 38,2%, 50% и 61,8%. После повышения, снижение, которое восстанавливается только на 25%, будет считаться неглубоким и может использоваться как признак силы. Снижение, которое откатывается на 75%, можно считать чрезмерным и максимальным, которого можно ожидать от коррекции. Это можно рассматривать как последнюю точку разворота перед тем, как движение полностью вернется к исходному минимуму. Как и все индикаторы и линейные исследования, квадрантные линии следует использовать в сочетании с другими аспектами технического анализа.


1-17 12:27
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Часовые пояса Фибоначчи

Часовые пояса Фибоначчи не зря называют «зонами». Это не точки жесткого разворота, а скорее потенциальные точки разворота, за которыми следует следить по мере приближения цены к этой зоне. Временные зоны Фибоначчи представляют собой нечто среднее между циклическим анализом и анализом Фибоначчи. Оба имеют большое количество последователей, и поворотные моменты можно прогнозировать на недели и месяцы вперед. Однако эти точки прогноза служат предупреждением о потенциальных разворотах тренда. По мере приближения этих точек разворота графику следует обратиться к другим аспектам технического анализа, чтобы фактически подтвердить разворот. Это может быть бычий или медвежий паттерн, бычьи или медвежьи свечи, бычьи или медвежьи индикаторы или подсказки из самого ценового графика.

Временные зоны Фибоначчи - это вертикальные линии, основанные на последовательности Фибоначчи. Эти линии проходят вдоль оси X (ось даты) как механизм прогнозирования разворотов на основе прошедшего времени. В качестве отправной точки часто выбирается основной минимум или максимум. Расстояния начинаются относительно небольшими и растут по мере расширения последовательности Фибоначчи. Чартисты могут расширить временные зоны Фибоначчи в будущее, чтобы предвидеть потенциальные точки разворота.
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Последовательность и соотношения
Эта статья не предназначена для того, чтобы слишком глубоко углубляться в математические свойства, лежащие в основе последовательности Фибоначчи и золотого сечения. Есть много других источников для этой детали. Однако некоторые основы обеспечат необходимую основу для самых популярных чисел. Леонардо Пизано Боголло (1170–1250), итальянский математик из Пизы, приписывают введение последовательности Фибоначчи на Запад. Это выглядит следующим образом:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 ……

Последовательность простирается до бесконечности и содержит множество уникальных математических свойств.

После 0 и 1 каждое число является суммой двух предыдущих чисел (1 + 2 = 3, 2 + 3 = 5, 5 + 8 = 13 8 + 13 = 21 и т. Д.…).
Число, разделенное на предыдущее, приблизительно равно 1,618 (21/13 = 1,6153, 34/21 = 1,6190, 55/34 = 1,6176, 89/55 = 1,6181). Приближение приближается к 1,6180 по мере увеличения числа.
Число, разделенное на следующее по величине число, приблизительно равно 0,6180 (13/21 = 0,6190, 21/34 = 0,6176, 34/55 = 0,6181, 55/89 = 0,6179 и т. Д.). Приближение приближается к 0,6180 по мере увеличения числа. Это основа для коррекции на 61,8%.
1.618 относится к золотому сечению или золотому сечению, также называемому фи. Значение, обратное 1,618, равно 0,618. Эти соотношения можно найти в природе, архитектуре, искусстве и биологии. В своей книге "Волновой принцип Эллиотта" Роберт Пречтер цитирует Уильяма Хоффера из декабрьского номера журнала Smithsonian Magazine за 1975 год:

… Отношение 0,618034 к 1 является математической основой для формы игральных карт и Парфенона, подсолнухов и раковин улиток, греческих ваз и спиральных галактик космического пространства. Греки основывали большую часть своего искусства и архитектуры на этой пропорции. Они назвали это золотой серединой.
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Интерпретация
Медленное начало последовательности Фибоначчи создает относительно плотную кластеризацию в начале временных зон Фибоначчи. Иногда необходимо игнорировать первые 5 часовых поясов или около того, поскольку после этого момента зоны расширяются довольно быстро по мере развития последовательности. Согласно теории, потенциальные точки разворота можно найти, заглянув вперед на 21, 34, 55, 89 и 144 дня, все из которых являются числами Фибоначчи. 21 день отмечает 8-й часовой пояс Фибоначчи. Некоторые последующие зоны перечислены ниже. Помните, что вы можете найти будущие часовые пояса, добавив два предыдущих часовых пояса (89 + 144 = 233).

8-я зона = 21 день или период
9-я зона = 34 дня или периода
10-я зона = 55 дней или периодов
11-я зона = 89 дней или периодов
12-я зона = 144 дня или периода
13-я зона = 233 дня или периода

QQQQ Пример

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На графике 1 показан индекс Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) с часовыми поясами Фибоначчи, простирающимися от минимума марта 2009 года, который был важным минимумом. Первые 7 часовых поясов трудно использовать из-за плотной кластеризации. Последовательность дает некоторую передышку, начиная с 8-го часового пояса (21 день). 9-й часовой пояс (34 дня) удачно совпал с июльским минимумом. 10-й часовой пояс (55 дней) пришелся на середину восходящего тренда и не был значимым. 11-й часовой пояс пришелся на минимум февраля.


График 2 показывает QQQQ с добавленным временем, чтобы увидеть следующий часовой пояс Фибоначчи. В разделе «Атрибуты диаграммы» пользователи могут добавлять «дополнительные столбцы» для просмотра будущих часовых поясов Фибоначчи. Следующий часовой пояс Фибоначчи наступает на 155-дневной отметке в начале сентября 2010 года. QQQQ имеет тенденцию к снижению с конца апреля, и эта зона может обозначить важный минимум.
1-18 05:30
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Antonov2021
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jerryroy Posted at 2020-10-28 23:41
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Веера Фибоначчи

Веера Фибоначчи используются для определения потенциальных точек поддержки, сопротивления или разворота. Как и в случае с инструментом коррекции Фибоначчи, эти точки разворота предполагают, что движение носит коррекционный характер. Откат после повышения считается коррекцией, которая найдет поддержку значительно выше первоначальной впадины. Отскок после снижения считается ралли против тренда, которое ударит по сопротивлению значительно ниже первоначального пика. Линии веера Фибоначчи позволяют пользователям предвидеть конечные точки для этих движений против тренда.

Как и все инструменты аннотации, веерные линии Фибоначчи не рассматриваются как отдельная система. То, что цены приближаются к дуге, не означает, что они развернутся. Во многих случаях цены движутся прямо через эти линии. Нет идеального индикатора. Вот почему составители графиков должны использовать другие инструменты для подтверждения поддержки, сопротивления, бычьего и медвежьего разворотов.

Линии веера Фибоначчи - это линии тренда, основанные на точках восстановления Фибоначчи. Восходящие веерные линии проходят вверх от впадины и проходят коррекцию, основанную на повышении (от впадины к пику). Эти веерные линии затем можно использовать для оценки уровней поддержки или потенциальных зон разворота. Падающие веерные линии идут вниз от пика и проходят через коррекции, основанные на снижении (от пика к минимуму). Эти веерные линии затем можно использовать для оценки уровней сопротивления или потенциальных зон разворота. В этой статье объясняются соотношения Фибоначчи и приводятся примеры использования веера Фибоначчи для проецирования уровней поддержки и сопротивления.
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Последовательность и соотношения
Эта статья не предназначена для того, чтобы слишком глубоко углубляться в математические свойства, лежащие в основе последовательности Фибоначчи и золотого сечения. Есть много других источников для этой детали. Однако некоторые основы обеспечат необходимую основу для самых популярных чисел. Леонардо Пизано Боголло (1170–1250), итальянский математик из Пизы, приписывают введение последовательности Фибоначчи на Запад. Это выглядит следующим образом:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 ……

Последовательность простирается до бесконечности и содержит множество уникальных математических свойств:

После 0 и 1 каждое число представляет собой сумму двух предыдущих чисел (1 + 2 = 3, 2 + 3 = 5, 5 + 8 = 13 8 + 13 = 21 и т. Д.).
Число, разделенное на предыдущее, приблизительно равно 1,618 (21/13 = 1,6153, 34/21 = 1,6190, 55/34 = 1,6176, 89/55 = 1,6181). Приближение приближается к 1,6180 по мере увеличения числа.
Число, разделенное на следующее по величине число, приблизительно равно 0,6180 (13/21 = 0,6190, 21/34 = 0,6176, 34/55 = 0,6181, 55/89 = 0,6179 и т. Д.). Приближение приближается к 0,6180 по мере увеличения числа. Это основа для коррекции на 61,8%.
Число, разделенное на две другие цифры выше, дает приблизительно 0,3820 (13/34 = 0,382, 21/55 = 0,3818, 34/89 = 0,3820, 55 / = 144 = 3819 и т. Д.). Приближение приближается к 0,3820 по мере увеличения числа. Это основа для коррекции на 38,2%. Также обратите внимание, что 1 - 0,618 = 0,382
1.618 относится к золотому сечению или золотому сечению, также называемому фи. Значение, обратное 1,618, равно 0,618. Эти соотношения можно найти в природе, архитектуре, искусстве и биологии. В своей книге «Волновой принцип Эллиотта» Роберт Пречтер цитирует Уильяма Хоффера из декабрьского номера журнала Smithsonian Magazine за 1975 год:
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… Отношение 0,618034 к 1 является математической основой для формы игральных карт и Парфенона, подсолнухов и раковин улиток, греческих ваз и спиральных галактик космического пространства. Греки основывали большую часть своего искусства и архитектуры на этой пропорции. Они назвали это золотой серединой.

Расчет и чертеж
Восходящий веер Фибоначчи

Линия веера 1: снижение до 38,2%
Веерная линия 2: снижение до 50%
Веерная линия 3: снижение до 61,8%

На графике 1 показан индекс S&P 500 ETF с растущими линиями веера Фибоначчи. Линии основаны на минимуме марта 2009 г. и максимуме апреля 2010 г. Горизонтальные розовые линии показывают инструмент коррекции Фибоначчи, простирающийся от впадины до пика. Чтобы провести линию, нужны две точки. Первая точка для каждой линии веера основана на минимуме. Вторые точки основаны на коррекциях Фибоначчи. Обратите внимание, как линии веера Фибоначчи начинаются от впадины и проходят через эти коррекции Фибоначчи (синие стрелки).
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Падающий веер Фибоначчи

Линия веера 1: пик до 38,2% восстановления
Веерная линия 2: восстановление от пика до 50%
Линия веера 3: пик до 61,8% восстановления

На графике 2 показан индекс S&P 500 ETF с падающими линиями веера Фибоначчи. Линии основаны на пике апреля 2010 года (максимум) и минимуме в июле 2010 года (минимум). Горизонтальные розовые линии показывают инструмент коррекции Фибоначчи, простирающийся от пика до впадины. Чтобы провести линию, нужны две точки. Первая точка для каждой линии веера основана на максимуме. Вторые точки основаны на коррекциях Фибоначчи. Обратите внимание на то, как линии веера Фибоначчи начинаются с пика и проходят через эти уровни восстановления Фибоначчи (синие стрелки).


1-19 12:16
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Antonov2021
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jerryroy Posted at 2020-10-28 23:41
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Вилы Эндрюса
Крутизна канала вил зависит от расположения трех точек прорисовки, особенно точки 1, которая является началом средней линии. Хотя точка 1 обычно начинается с реакционного максимума или минимума, иногда необходимо откорректировать точку 1, чтобы обеспечить реалистичный ценовой канал. К сожалению, жестких правил расстановки очков нет. Вместо этого чартисты должны использовать рассудительность и опыт при рисовании каналов. Здесь в игру вступает субъективный характер технического анализа. Как и в случае с большинством аспектов технического анализа, важно накопить опыт, экспериментируя с вилами Эндрюса. Увидеть из первых рук, что работает, а что нет, - единственный реальный способ освоить индикатор.

Вилы Andrews 'Pitchfork, разработанные Аланом Эндрюсом, представляют собой инструмент канала тренда, состоящий из трех линий; медианная линия тренда в центре с двумя параллельными равноудаленными линиями тренда с каждой стороны. Эти линии рисуются путем выбора трех точек, обычно на основе максимумов или минимумов реакции, движущихся слева направо на графике. Как и в случае с обычными линиями и каналами тренда, внешние линии тренда отмечают потенциальные области поддержки и сопротивления. Тенденция сохраняется, пока сохраняется канал Вилы; развороты происходят, когда цена вырывается из канала вил.
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Выбор трех точек
Первым шагом к использованию вил Эндрюса является выбор трех точек для построения линий тренда. Эти точки обычно основаны на реакционных максимумах или реакционных минимумах, также называемых точками разворота. На графике 1 показан Маккессон (MCK) с вилами Эндрюса, расширяющимися от июньского минимума. Первая выбранная точка отмечает начало средней линии. Точки 2 и 3 определяют ширину канала вил. Срединная линия основана на двух точках: точке 1 и средней точке между точками 2 и 3. Таким образом, средняя линия начинается в точке 1 и делит пополам точки 2 и 3. Это контролирует наклон (крутизну) средней линии. Затем внешние линии тренда продолжаются параллельно средней линии. Красные вилы Эндрюса показывают альтернативную срединную линию, основанную на июльском минимуме для точки 1. Обратите внимание, что красная срединная линия по-прежнему делит линию между точками 2 и 3 пополам, но она круче синей средней линии. Уклон вил зависит от размещения точки 1.

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На диаграмме 2 показаны нисходящие вилы Эндрюса с Accenture (ACN). Синяя средняя линия начинается в точке 1 и делит пополам линию между точками 2 и 3. Внешние линии тренда параллельны и равноудалены от средней линии. Для справки по наклону красные Вилы используют августовский минимум в качестве точки 1, что делает среднюю линию более крутой.


Гибкость с точкой 1
Иногда требуется корректировка средней линии, чтобы получить реалистичный наклон. Слишком крутые вилы легко сломаются. Слишком плоские вилы не улавливают тренд. На графике 3 показано движение Electronic Arts (ERTS) с вилками Эндрюса, поднявшимися от минимума конца января. В идеале точка 1 должна быть основана на минимуме движения. Точки 2 и 3 будут отмечать первый реакционный максимум и первый реакционный минимум после точки 1. Однако средняя линия, основанная на минимуме в конце января, совпадает с поддержкой в марте (зеленые стрелки) и сопротивлением в июле. Что еще более важно, он создает канал, который содержит ценовое действие в течение многих месяцев. Обратите внимание, что ERTS стала перекупленной, когда цена поднялась выше верхней линии тренда Вил. Тенденция полностью изменилась с прорывом ниже нижней линии тренда.
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На диаграмме 4 показан Intuit (INTU) с двумя возможными вилами. Красные вилы были слишком крутыми. Обратите внимание, что тенденция не изменилась, когда цены опустились ниже нижней линии тренда в конце апреля. Альтернативой было основание средней линии на минимуме середины декабря. Это создает более плоские вилы, более реалистичные для восходящего тренда. Как и в случае с обычными линиями тренда, крутые линии тренда легче сломать. Справедливость «голубых вил» была подтверждена, когда цены достигли сопротивления на верхней линии тренда в начале апреля и нашли поддержку на нижней линии тренда в начале мая.

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Поддержка, сопротивление и разворот
Линии тренда вил могут оказывать поддержку или сопротивление. При восходящем тренде нижняя линия тренда действует как поддержка, определяющая общий тренд, верхняя линия тренда действует как сопротивление, а средняя линия определяет силу тренда. Цены должны достигать средней линии на регулярной основе во время восходящего тренда. Неспособность достичь этой линии указывает на базовую слабость, которая может предвещать разворот тренда. График 5 показывает, что Ciena (CIEN) движется вверх в рамках растущих вил. Обратите внимание, как нижняя линия тренда предлагает поддержку, а средняя линия - сопротивление. Несмотря на то, что Ciena встречала сопротивление на средней линии на протяжении всего восходящего тренда, ей удавалось регулярно достигать этой линии, чтобы подтвердить восходящий тренд. Неспособность достичь средней линии показала бы основную слабость.
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yesterday 13:22
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