For me, the most interesting stats here are the daily shipping stats.
So from what we have gathered, 1509 Mavics have been ordered, and 99 shipped and/or delivered.

What seems clear that their shipping volume is not really increasing.
Today I (and many others, as I guess) got their email that says: "For Mavic Pro orders received before November 3, 2016, we will do our best to clear them all within the next seven to eight weeks."


So how can that be possible at a rate of less than 70 / week? Would more look like 6 month at that rate.
(I know not everybody is entering their data here, but the order/shipping ratio should stay similar)


Just sharing some thoughts, let me know if there is a "thought error"


cheers
tob

fans70de966e Posted at 2016-11-3 18:10
This is because they don't really have a production line going now. They are guesstimating that they ...

That would be a feasible theory. I find it however, hard to believe that a prestigious company that is successful since 10 years would be so unprepared for a high demand, considering the effort they put into marketing it. I tend to think there was another unpredicted problem.
But who knows.

You may also want to consider the fact that the spreadsheet is completely meaningless and holds zero statistical value.  It only shows 1509 orders.  I would bet they got at least 100,000 if not 1,000,000 on day one.  Even if we go with a small and highly unlikely number of 100,000 in total sales, the spreadsheet only reflects 1.5% of those orders, which means it only reflects 1.5% of the shipping.  Based on my knowledge of past sales estimates regarding the Phantom, and DJI saying they were not prepared for the orders, I would guess they have between 750,000 - 1,000,000 orders.  I'm thinking they were expecting something in the area of 500,000 or less.  My best hypothesis based on their sales and growth from the last 3 years - they are shipping 40,000 a month, or about 1400 drones a day.  I would venture that right now, the Mavic makes up 60-80% of that.  

fans70de966e Posted at 2016-11-4 01:46
DJI-method: you are assuming they have a real production line. You assumed that prior when they didn ...

You're quoting the hoax email, that you know is a hoax.  Remember, just because you post the same lie in multiple threads does not make it come true.

fans70de966e Posted at 2016-11-4 01:46
DJI-method: you are assuming they have a real production line. You assumed that prior when they didn ...

That is correct, I got my numbers by using the past estimates on sales from their prior drones.  I'm a fan of using evidence to come to a conclusion.

fans70de966e Posted at 2016-11-3 12:10
This is because they don't really have a production line going now. They are guesstimating that they ...

Someone should send them a book on Henry Ford's assembly line invention.

fans70de966e Posted at 2016-11-3 17:46
DJI-method: you are assuming they have a real production line. You assumed that prior when they didn ...

Show some respect you only arrived here today, you don't even have a Mavic on order, yet you know all the workings of there production and Manufacturing.
If you don't get your way, you think you can throw all your toys out of the pram and throw a tantrum.
You should go away and order your Mavic , then come back and have a proper debate when your at least 12 years old..

fans74db5aff Posted at 2016-11-3 15:06

So Dean Powell of PBtech (which I've never heard of) is now the authority on the amount of Mavics DJI sent out? I hope you're posting this email to show it's existence and not suggesting that there is anything factual here.

That spreadsheet is useless because it isn't updated. Lots of people go on to report they don't have their mavic (shipped=no). How many do you think went back to change their status to shipped=yes? Likely very few. (Note - Is that even possible on this sheet? I don't think you can update your post..)

method007 Posted at 2016-11-4 01:41
You may also want to consider the fact that the spreadsheet is completely meaningless and holds zero ...

Method, allowing that your figures are accurate (or at least in the ballpark) a 750,000 drone backorder will take 535 days to fulfill if they are only able to ship 1400 drones a day. Maybe the email should have said 78 weeks instead of 7-8 weeks?

I do hope you're wrong on this one.

Peel Posted at 2016-11-3 15:39
Method, allowing that your figures are accurate (or at least in the ballpark) a 750,000 drone back ...

Yea, sorry, I was at work so I was typing fast.  Based on DJI's announced financial information, it is expected they sold about 500,000 drones during the year of 2015.  DJI has continued to beat the prior years projections, so I would expect that to continue, selling nearly 750,000 drones in 2016.  Using stupid math, that means in 2015 they shipped about 1,369 drones a day.  In 2015 they also had a large product launch, although likely not as big as the Mavics launch.  If you consider that most people will buy "the newest thing", and subtract pro sales, I'm betting 60% of the drones sold by DJI this year will be the Mavic.  If they manage to hit 750,000 drones sold this year, that's 62,500 a month.  60% of that is 37,500 Mavics a month.  I'm thinking October should be counted as a full sales month, which means they should have expected 112,500 Mavics sold through the end of the year.  It's possible those sales have already been hit as of today (hence the "un-expected demand).  It doesn't make sense to me that they would pay for a system bigger than they need - so they probably started on the 1400 shipped a day system.  It's likely they ramped that up due to demand and hired more staff in production and logistics.  I'm also betting that in the first week the stock produced to date was shipped, so that probably knocked out thousands of orders.  If you consider their estimate of everything ordered before November delivered by the end of December, that would be about 84,000 drones delivered using my numbers - which is right in their wheel house in terms of what they have done in the past.  Please keep in mind these numbers are pulled out of the air.  The only thing we know for certain is how much money they made in prior years, they have never provided any information regarding production so there is simply no way to estimate things.  I'm just talking shop here

T_A_Rogers Posted at 2016-11-3 21:25
That spreadsheet is useless because it isn't updated. Lots of people go on to report they don't have ...

updating is totally possible, looks like it saves a sort of cookie and recognizes u already filled the form. I think people will be excited when they get their shipping notice and do update. That is, if they are aware its possible. Which is the bigger problem. Otherwise this would be a good poll, no matter if its just a fraction of the entire picture. btw why did that guy get deleted? automatically?

The spread sheet is great for a number of reasons, (and I do hope folks go back and update their order status!)
1 - the community pulled together in an attempt to get some sense of queue information that was previously unavailable
2 - while it certainly is not reflective of ALL orders, the sampling set of the orders it contains does give the closest thing we have to shipping times based on order dates.
3 - it's something to do while waiting for our mavics!

In the coming months, it will be interesting to hear what the actual daily/weekly production capacity really is/was.

As much as it sucks that DJI was unable to or unprepared for the globally high demand of their product, I'd rather wait 2 months for it compared to getting it on time, and then having a Samsung Note 7 fiasco occurring. DJI's email stated production issue, which took a while to resolve, so whatever Mavic's were made and ready to ship probably had to go back and get repaired, so only the "good" few were sent out to settle the market down. Doesn't matter how big the company is, DJI has taken a good approach in pushing the releast back rather then sending out all drones on time.

I suspect that anyone who has ordered up to now (part from the 100 or so who have received their orders) will now have to wait a further 7 or 8 weeks. It is clear that either production has not really started or those who pre-ordered with DJI will now have to wait until DJI can fulfil orders to its large retail customers.

We were told on 18th October that production was in fullswing... We now know that this was not the case. There is absolutely no reason to believe a single word coming out of DJI. They either lie to us or tell us nothing....

method007 Posted at 2016-11-3 17:41
You may also want to consider the fact that the spreadsheet is completely meaningless and holds zero ...

So you think that there were 80,000 orders in the first two days do you? This would mean that they have now shipped about 100,000.... which is about 97,997 less videos that we have seen on YouTube...

I suspect you are talking utter rubbish. There is no evidence whatsoever that more than about 100 people worldwide who pre-ordered in the first two days with DJI have received their shipments.....

Drmerlin Posted at 2016-11-4 22:10
So you think that there were 80,000 orders in the first two days do you? This would mean that they ...

Lol there is forums in different languages. Not all people come here. Not everybody posts on YouTube.

Only thing I get out of announcement is the was suppose to start shipping the 15. Said that they ran into a problem producing and it took a week. Why didn't they start producing before the 15th?

Drmerlin Posted at 2016-11-4 22:06
I suspect that anyone who has ordered up to now (part from the 100 or so who have received their ord ...

But yet you see people from around the world posting here and other social media sites stating they received theirs or they got a tracking number.
They are shipping all the time, are they able to keep up with the massive amounts of orders NO. And that's why the latest announcement stated that orders up to Nov 3rd would take 7-8 weeks. Meaning if you ordered in the first dew days and haven't received yours yet then it's probably coming soon. And if you ordered within the last week then it may take 7-8 weeks.

Drmerlin Posted at 2016-11-4 22:10
So you think that there were 80,000 orders in the first two days do you? This would mean that they ...

I hope the part in my post where I said it was rubbish helped you with your conclusion that it's rubbish. I imagine you realize that there is no requirement to make a youtube video once the Mavic is received right?  If so, I'm not certain what you mean by your comment.  We know a rough number on how many drones DJI sold last year.  Unless they are making less money, they have to be shipping at least 40,000 drones a month (on average), period.

DJI-Ken Posted at 2016-11-4 22:19
But yet you see people from around the world posting here and other social media sites stating the ...

Are you ever going to unblock my account?

Most people are not posting photos/video on YouTube to prove they have it.
DJI is also obviously producing a massive amount of stock for worldwide re-sellers at the same time which is yet to be released. These orders FAR outweigh direct DJI orders.

Based on this forum it is clear why re-sellers don't have stock yet (or wont release yet). Just imagine if re-sellers released stock slowly... every single one of them would have to deal with customers complaining why someone who ordered minutes/hours/days after them have already received their Mavic... like those who ordered direct from DJI.

DJI-Ken Posted at 2016-11-4 14:19
But yet you see people from around the world posting here and other social media sites stating the ...

That sound reasonable.... except that DJI chat have told me that they cannot assure me that my order of 29/09/16 will be shipped in November....

fansafaa2970 Posted at 2016-11-4 14:12
Lol there is forums in different languages. Not all people come here. Not everybody posts on YouTu ...

I understand that not everybody posts on YouTube... However, the paucity of posts suggests that relatively few have received their orders. Furthermore there are daily posts on this forum from people who ordered on the first two days who have heard absolutely nothing... It is the difference between evidence and speculation...

Drmerlin Posted at 2016-11-5 01:52
That sound reasonable.... except that DJI chat have told me that they cannot assure me that my ord ...

More than likely it will come soon but they cannot give a guarantee just in case something happens.
Since you ordered within the first few days, I would think your coming up so let's see what happens this coming week.

DJI-Ken Posted at 2016-11-4 18:09
More than likely it will come soon but they cannot give a guarantee just in case something happens ...

I always appreciate your optimism and encouragement Ken. However, you and I both know that my order is NOT going to be shipped this week or next week or any time this month for that matter. I would happily bet money on it....