Punchbuggy
Second Officer
Flight distance : 483166 ft
Australia
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JerryMC2017 Posted at 2017-2-28 12:01
Hi Hallmark007, thank you for your response,
Do you think that finally drones will get to a point where they safe enough to fly above people (such airplane) with F.R of 10e(-6)?
if so drone price will increase dramatically
Interesting question, but 'safe' is based on the perception of 'risk'; or more specifically, your risk appetite.
Is a P4/P as safe to fly over people as a plane? When managing risk, you consider the event (people being injured from above), the cause (failure of components, irresponsible pilot, inexperienced or bad pilot, poor environmental conditions, etc), and the consequence (non-lethal injury up to loss of life).
So, cause due to a drone (Possible) - it's built to a price-point so has limited redundancy to props and components but the likelihood of complete failure is low; irresponsible pilots can be managed through penalties, restricted through regulations, or GEO restriction; inexperienced pilots can be educated through training and forums such as this, Beginners Mode on RC; etc). Cause due to a plane (Unlikely) - extreme redundancy is heavily built in and so failure is extremely unlikely; pilots are heavily regulated and must be certified; etc.
As a consequence of a drone event, a drone may only inflict a non-lethal outcome in the majority of cases (Minor). For a plane event, loss of life is extremely likely (Extreme).
So, using a standard risk matrix, the determined risk level of an event caused by a drone is Low, whereas the risk level for a plane is High (predominantly due to the level of consequence - loss of life). Of cause, if we're not talking 'Phantom' but talking a $2 Shop toy, then the likelihood of an event cause increases (to Almost Certain), but the risk level is still determined to be Medium due to a non-lethal consequence.
So will drones be safe enough to fly above people? Well, considering that from a risk management perspective, if you had a low risk appetite then you'd be banning planes from flying above people, not drones.
And I'm a certified Risk Manager. :-)
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