Commercial, big time drone deliveries are surely just around the corner.

What will happen to us?

Nothing. The sky is big.

No, it is'nt ...

Lots of things.

If the likes of Amazon will get permission, the air space will get crowded very quickly.

*DM* Posted at 2-25 01:02
If the likes of Amazon will get permission, the air space will get crowded very quickly.

It would be bad if DJI releases a 100% NFZ and only those with the right licensing and unlocks will be the only ones permitted to fly.  They probably made enough money so everybody gets screwed.

This makes sense if a drone that was delivering a package got hit and crashes into our house and our house is gone etc.  If it affects everybody else in their own little way, it doesn't matter to us.. it doesn't matter to anybody not involved but the involved could be us.

These drones are not immune to failure.  An ESC short, a motor winding cut, a battery discharge problem, 100% signal interference, it's cool that our drones have performed beautifully w/o issue but it doesn't mean the past equals the future.  I'd still fly as I'm pretty much an addict but if I were to do it all over again and other things that I know in life, I probably wouldn't.

I don't know, I will keep flying it till it crashes ^^ ouch

*DM* Posted at 2-25 01:02
If the likes of Amazon will get permission, the air space will get crowded very quickly.

I think you might be safe for a couple of years because drones are not waterproof ( unless military)
The rain and storms we have in uk means only limited flying unless they can fly in 40 mph+
They need to be able to avoid everything  and carry more than a tube of toothpaste.
Then theres the drone cars and we all want one of those, so keep flying on and enjoy till they drag u away in the little white van ha ha.

I would be really curious as to what WILL happen the first time an Amazon drone drops from the sky and causes damage.
It will happen......

If you look at Europe and where EASA intend taking commercial operation Amazon etc, they are already developing air space which will be known as U-Space which will be above 400ft , this is specifically designed to have minimum impact on drone hobbyists photographers etc who are bound to fly below 400ft.
The skies are vast and while I think there might be a squeeze on hobbyists flying in cities and in the future permission may be needed in some city areas, I think this was coming with or without large commercial enterprises.

I think all we are seeing now is planning for the future, no drone flyer in Europe has lost any flying privileges apart from maybe public parks heritage sites and similar, which I believe is correct and those places that need protection should get it.

When we see new EASA rules come to fruition we in Europe will have more freedom to fly and not less, we will be able to travel throughout Europe flying under the general rules we now fly at home, many in Europe will be given greater freedom to fly their drones, Belgium comes mind.

So I know we may be under greater scrutiny but if flying within the rules this scrutiny shouldn’t come into effect, so long as all authorities are clearly aware of the rules and treat drone flyers with respect, I think we will be OK, so not an end to drone flying for hobbyists, but changes will come .

Think about the issues of drone delivery for a while and you will soon realise it is a pie-in-the-sky idea. No civil aviation authority is going to permit drone deliveries in any form unitl there are near-perfect guarantees that they won't fall out of the sky and injure someone.

The first time that a drone falls and injures or kills someone will probably be the first time that has happened period, and the public outcry will make the authority crap themselves. There are a million safety and logistic problems yet to be solved for drone delivery, it is a very dangerous proposition. But it keeps getting dragged up all the time by the media in particular, who most would be aware, apply no real thinking to anything they publish.

If it ever happened, it would be a happy hunting ground for porch pirates.

How long?  1 year, 9 months, 13 days and 0 hours.  

I think it will be a good while because there's nothing imminent suggesting the end's in sight. Delivery drones and other commercial drones may share the skies at a higher altitude but given the speed that tech and ai software is improving (plus the safeguards companies like Amazon will put in place) I can't see many dropping out the sky or landing on anyone. There's almost zero chance a company as big and careful as amazon will launch a death trap to ruin their name and sink Jeff bezo's empire. I think we're good for the time being.

It's only a matter of time

My local council has banned drone flying completely in public spaces, unless it is in a small designated area shared with other RC modellers.

lannes Posted at 2-25 16:33
It's only a matter of time

My local council has banned drone flying completely in public spaces, unless it is in a small designated area shared with other RC modellers.

Your local council does not have the power to make that ruling. All they can do is regulate taking off or landing from a council owned land space.

MrTitan Posted at 2-25 16:04
How long?  1 year, 9 months, 13 days and 0 hours.  

I think it will be a good while because there's nothing imminent suggesting the end's in sight. Delivery drones and other commercial drones may share the skies at a higher altitude but given the speed that tech and ai software is improving (plus the safeguards companies like Amazon will put in place) I can't see many dropping out the sky or landing on anyone. There's almost zero chance a company as big and careful as amazon will launch a death trap to ruin their name and sink Jeff bezo's empire. I think we're good for the time being.

Then why do you not see any trials being conducted? I would suggest it is because everyone rushed to get on the drone-delivery bandwagon and now some thinking has been applied they realise it is not an easy one to solve. How do you avoid mid-air collisions between drones ? There is no practical tech to do that.

lannes Posted at 2-25 16:33
It's only a matter of time

My local council has banned drone flying completely in public spaces, unless it is in a small designated area shared with other RC modellers.

It's only a matter of time
I've been hearing that since I started flying 6 years ago but still can't see any evidence to support the idea that drone flying is under threat.

Geebax Posted at 2-25 16:51
Then why do you not see any trials being conducted? I would suggest it is because everyone rushed to get on the drone-delivery bandwagon and now some thinking has been applied they realise it is not an easy one to solve. How do you avoid mid-air collisions between drones ? There is no practical tech to do that.

I think you're looking to disagree about something that I didn't actually say?  

I didn't share any opinion on time scales related to businesses testing drones for any purpose.  I simply mentioned we, as hobbyists (or pro film focused users), may well share the sky with them in the future - once tech and ai have improved enough to ensure safety.

MrTitan Posted at 2-26 03:06
I think you're looking to disagree about something that I didn't actually say?  

I didn't share any opinion on time scales related to businesses testing drones for any purpose.  I simply mentioned we, as hobbyists (or pro film focused users), may well share the sky with them in the future - once tech and ai have improved enough to ensure safety.

Yes, but there is a growing tendency to have faith that 'some future tech' will solve the problem, when in fact there is really nothing on the horizon, or the original model was seriously flawed from the start. In my opinion, drone delivery remains seriously flawed, just like Jetson-like cars in the sky.

Geebax Posted at 2-26 13:31
Yes, but there is a growing tendency to have faith that 'some future tech' will solve the problem, when in fact there is really nothing on the horizon, or the original model was seriously flawed from the start. In my opinion, drone delivery remains seriously flawed, just like Jetson-like cars in the sky.

Nope, still not with you. I didn’t mention a specific faith in future tech at all, let alone for the purposes you describe.

However, regarding your concerns it does stand to reason that some form of future technology will indeed resolve the issues you are referring to. How quickly or slowly, successfully or poorly that technology will be applied is up for discussion. But not with me, because I didn’t mention it and have no interest in it.

I will keep flying mine.  In all seriousness I think drone delivery won't happen at all, too many consequences and regulations.  Look at the company called Flirty, they have been trying to get a permit for the last 2 maybe 3 years and they are not even close on making it a reality.  So, If I were you I would not worry about it too much.

Happy flying.

That is up to us I guess